ANALYTICAL AND PREDICTIVE MODELING OF GROSS PROFIT OF IT COMPANY

Анотація

The article analytical and prognostic modeling of economic indicators: income, production costs and gross profit of an IT company is provided. Statistical data on the income and cost of production in order to identify the reasons for the decline in profitability of IT-companies is investigated. The relevance of this study is of particular importance with a large number of groups of contractors, when it is necessary to effectively distribute the staff, given the fact that the lion's share of the cost is formed from the hourly pay of programmers. Provided that the use of labor resources is increased, the cost of IT products will decrease and, accordingly, the company's profitability will increase.

For this purpose, based on statistical data, the predictive ARIMA model of income using the Box-Jenkins method is constructed. An analysis of the residuals of the model showed its adequacy. The program of the work result listing for constructing and analyzing the ARIMA model is given. Using a trend analysis of statistical data on production costs, a forecast model is built. An analysis of residues was also performed. Based on the constructed forecast models, the values of income and production cost, as well as gross profit at the end of the year, are determined. The analysis of the company's profitability showed a drop in this indicator. In order to identify the causes of this fact, profitability indicators of all groups of counterparties were analyzed. As a result, two groups of counterparties were identified in which a drop in profitability was noted. A detailed analysis of the aggregate data of these groups showed an increase in the cost of IT products created for them. The graphs of the results of a trend analysis of the growth of gross profit and the increase in the cost of production for the period from January 2017 to September 2018, as well as for the period from November 2018 to September 2019, are presented. It was noted that the reason for a rather sharp increase in cost is the irrational use of personnel. Moreover, because of the reorganization of the teams working with problematic contractors, the situation stabilized and at the end of the year, there was an increase in the profitability of the IT company.